Summary

CARGO POTENTIAL REPORT ON KYMI / MÄNTYHARJU –CANAL TRAFFIC LINK UTILISING ALL YEAR ROUND TANKER/CONTAINER SHIP OR TANKER/BARGE COMBINATIONS

The aim of the report was to examine cargo potential on tanker/container ships and tanker/barges on the planned new inland waterway on realization of the new Kymijoki and Mäntyharju canal in the area of Lakeland Finland and Päijänne. This so termed DAS vessel (Double Acting Ship) would operate all year round (ice class 1 A) and would, for example, transport empty containers as deck cargo from Kotka and oil cargo from Sköldvik to inland waterway ports and full containers from those ports to Kotka port. The vessel is either a category type 2100 TDW tanker or 1300 TDW tanker barge.

The areas concerned in this report are the following administrative districts:

Päijät-Häme (7)
Kymenlaakso, a third (8)
Southern Karelia (9)
Southern Savo (10)
Northern Savo (11)
Northern Karelia (12)
Central Finland (13)
Kainuu, a half (18)

About 25%of the population of Finland reside in the area which produces 22% of the country’s value-added industrial output.

Potential transport demand for fuel has been reported on a consumption per capita principle in the administrative districts of the area concerned with the Kymi/Mäntyharju canal link.

The potential of the forest industry (containerized timber products, paper) has been reported with the assistance of production figures and export figures of the Saimaa and Päijänne area.

As regards other classes of goods transportable by ship, the report has used as a basis detailed data of Northern Savo logistic research, which has been broadened to reflect the entire area concerned in ratio to the provincial gross domestic product.

The report has used with a new focus previously reported data from the area affected by the canal link. This information has been analysed and from shown district by district apart from Kainuu and Kymenlaakso: only the southern portion (half) of Kainuu and the northern portion (a third) of Kymenlaakso have been included in the area concerned. As a criteria for those parts of Kymenlaakso and Kainuu has been, inter alia, the location of forest industry with regard to the canal. Similarily part of Pirkanmaa has been included. (forest industry production facilities in the affected area).

In 1998 goods traffic on the Saimaa canal was about 1.6 million tons per annum. Table 7.1 presents a summary of the canal traffic potential introduced above for a year round tanker/container vessel. The potential all in all is in the region of 18 million tons. This research does not take a position on which of these classes of goods for, for example, logistical, environmental, functional, or geographical reasons or requirements give rise to feasible or profitable transport by the vessel type concerned via Mäntyharju and Kymijoki canals. The study is solely concerned with transport potentials in the area.

Table 7.1 Summary of Transport Potential (millions of tons)

* with potential to be containerized

The basis for the figures in table 7.1 is as follows (the numbers refer to the table)

1. Method of counting = Light fuel oils, the average consumption per capita in Finland has been multiplied by the population in the area effected by the canal link.
2. Forest industry imports to the area. Includes a transport potential of wood used for energy of 3,5 million tons, of which about 1,5 would be suited for canal transportation. The transportation of wood for energy over long distances is at present unprofitable, but the situation with regard to profitable utilization of various energy forms can change in the future. For this reason it is included. Sawmill byproduct wood (5,5 million tons p.a.) is not included in the figures as it is presently used for the most part locally.
3. The forest industry export from the area represents containerized potential.
4. Other Containerized Goods = products suitable for containerization other than those from the forestry industry (rough estimate). Method of counting: Northern Savo logistics report on Northern Savo transportation potential has been broadened to the area affected by the canal in relation to the provincial gross domestic product.
5. Earlier studies as a reference. Other than forestry industry. Part concern container transportation potential.
6. Estimated with the help of Savo-Karjala international road traffic study. Truck transport to Kotka and Hamina via Niirala and Vartius border stations.
7. Other observations: peat consumption of purchased fuel products in Finland is 2 million tons per year. Consumption in the area affected by the canal would, in accordance with the population, be 0,5 million tons. This figure is not included in the table of transport potential, because such potential is still minor and local. However the situation may change in the future.

The following presents general observations on the report and its results:

• The aim of the report was to examine only transportation potential. Account was also taken of that which had the potential in the future to be profitable transportation on the canal.
• The evaluation of container traffic potential for the other goods group is based on the Northern Savo situation, which has been weighted to reflect the provinces gross domestic product. Precise clarification of the potential would demand individual reports akin to that of Northern Savo logistics report, for which there is neither the time available nor the resources to carry out.
• Transport potential is noticeably influenced by the positioning of the boundaries of the area affected by the canal. This area can be expanded or contracted by the action of influential economical, logistical and environmental forces of change (environmental values, price developments in energy forms, reserves, logistic strategies of companies, performance demands of customers, technological changes in production etc.). The question concerns the profitability of various transportation arrangements and service capacity in differing situations.
• The report did not take a stand as regards to the competitive potential of the mode of transport as compared with other arrangements, or the logistical strategies of companies behind these arrangements.

The present 1,6 million tons of canal traffic represents about 9% of total potential. Export and import potential are imbalanced in that export potential is noticeably larger. In addition imports from Russia are in the same direction as industrial exports.

The logistical arrangements of companies have changed all the more to suit the customer, in that the amounts in question are reducing and the dispatch frequency increasing. The tanker/container ship can have the ability to answer these requirements by way of quick turnaround between harbours, at least for part of the industrial sectors. The central question is the cargo shippers willingness to transport, for example, light fuel on waterways.

In the future, for example, the wood for energy sector could grow noticeably. Real transportation potential is brought about on a product-by-product basis by realistic transport modes and facilities in Hamina-Kotka harbours. The amount of DAS ships required can be determined on this basis.

Direct influences on employment by the planned canal can be considered for example by way of the research " Socio-economic influences in transit traffic ".This transport ministry’s research has examined, inter alia, the transit traffic influence on employment in distribution chains in various sectors. The sectors concerned in the report were sea traffic, harbour authorities, stowage, liquid operating, forwarding and goods onwards handling, and the state (MKL, Customs, pilotage, channel maintenance, customs clearance and so on). The ministry’s research calculated that transit traffic employs in these areas 1,7 persons per 10,000 tons of transported goods. From this can be assessed canal traffic’s influence on employment, in so far as the entire transportation potential of canals is used, as 2,500 persons. This estimate of influence on employment relates only to canal traffic. This does not assess the total influence on employment with the realization of canal traffic. In other words employment can diminish in other transport modes. On the other hand the canal plan will probably have no influence on further employment in sea harbours as the goods already now pass through the seaports.

Naturally inland waterway traffic is different from other transit traffic in its nature so the estimation is only rough and general. This does not evaluate influences on employment of the canals or new shipbuilding and planning.